Moody’s Confirms Côte d’Ivoire’s “Ba2” Rating and Highlights the Strength of Its Growth Model

The rating agency Moody’s Ratings has confirmed Côte d’Ivoire’s debt rating, a key indicator that measures a country’s ability to repay its borrowings. This decision reflects the solidity of the Ivorian economic growth and the gradual improvement in public financial management. However, the agency also notes that certain challenges, particularly social and regional ones, continue to affect the country’s risk perception.

On March 13, Moody’s Ratings confirmed Côte d’Ivoire’s long-term sovereign rating at Ba2 in both local and foreign currency, with a stable outlook. This decision, which keeps Abidjan among the top five sovereign ratings in sub-Saharan Africa, indicates that the agency considers the country’s ability to honor its debt to remain solid, despite some economic and political challenges.

In its analysis, Moody’s emphasizes a “robust growth model” for the Ivorian economy, supported by both public and private investment, as well as the gradual diversification of economic activities. The agency forecasts that the country’s GDP will continue to grow at a high rate, between “6% and 7% per year until the end of the decade,” which would place Côte d’Ivoire “among the most dynamic economies in the world.”

An Economy in Progressive Transformation

Historically dependent on agriculture, the Ivorian economy is gradually evolving toward a more diversified structure. Agriculture remains the main pillar of exports, particularly cocoa, but other sectors are gaining importance, including industry, services, and extractive activities.

Investments in gold mining and hydrocarbons are playing an increasing role in this transformation. The development of the Baleine oil field and recent discoveries in the Calao complex are expected to support the country’s energy production in the coming years and strengthen its growth prospects.

According to Moody’s, this diversification is a key factor in reducing dependence on fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices and consolidating long-term growth trajectory.

Public Finances Under Control

The agency also highlights progress in public financial management. The government has committed to maintaining the budget deficit around 3% of GDP, a level in line with UEMOA convergence rules.

Tax revenues are steadily increasing. Moody’s estimates that they will account for around 15% of GDP in 2025, compared to 12.7% in 2022. This improvement is linked both to fiscal reforms and the strengthening of tax administration. The additional resources are expected to finance further investments in infrastructure and social programs under the next national development plan for 2026–2030.

In this context, the agency forecasts a gradual reduction in public debt, which is expected to decrease from around 59% of GDP in 2024 to 56% in 2027.

A More Diversified Financing Strategy

Côte d’Ivoire has also expanded its financial instruments to fund its development. In recent years, the country has raised funds on international markets through several notable operations: a 15-year eurobond issuance in February 2026, an international bond denominated in CFA francs in 2025, as well as the issuance of a Samurai bond, a first for a sub-Saharan African state.

At the same time, the country is strengthening its partnerships with financial institutions.

Despite these solid fundamentals, Moody’s highlights several risk factors. The agency notes, in particular, security tensions in the Sahel region, climate shocks, and fluctuations in commodity prices. The country also faces significant social challenges, especially youth unemployment, and social indicators that are still lower than those of many countries with a similar rating.

Côte d’Ivoire’s membership in UEMOA, however, remains an important stability factor. The CFA franc is pegged to the euro with the guarantee of the French Treasury, limiting exchange rate risks.

Moreover, Côte d’Ivoire is the largest economy in the zone and the main contributor to the region’s foreign exchange reserve pool, which now covers about six months of imports.

For Moody’s, the balance between these strengths and vulnerabilities explains the decision to maintain a stable outlook. If growth remains strong and public finances continue to improve, Côte d’Ivoire could gradually strengthen its position among Africa’s emerging economies.